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By J. Taylor

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An obvious option, then, for further development of these projections would be to generate alternative scenarios based on possible combinations of falling/rising/stable fertility and mortality and varying assumptions about net migration. While there is some heuristic potential here, it obviously makes sense to base such exploration on plausible indicators, and so the indicators themselves would also need to be assessed. In using the projections as a means of targeting policy, it is possible to estimate the future size of the Indigenous and non-Indigenous resident labour force by applying labour force participation rates to the projected working-age populations.

This produces a massive job deficit of 1,306 by 2016. In other words, the number of Aboriginal people in work across the Northern East Kimberley ABORIGINAL PARTICIPATION IN THE REGIONAL LABOUR MARKET  37 would need to more than double over the 15 year period with almost 100 extra jobs required each year—a task of an order of magnitude way beyond the capacity of current policy settings, and clearly in excess of any impact due to ADM targets despite the fact that these are ambitious. 9. 7a b c Notes: e a.

9. 7a b c Notes: e a. The 2001 census-derived Aboriginal employment/population ratio inclusive of CDEP b. The 2001 census-derived Aboriginal employment/population ratio exclusive of CDEP (mainstream employment) c. The non-Aboriginal census-derived employment/population ratio in 2001 d. Based on projection of working age population to 2016 (3,694) e. a augmented by an additional 126 ADM jobs based on local employment targets To summarise, because of the relative balance between projected population growth and anticipated employment growth, even if the substantial ADM employment targets for local Aboriginal people are met this will not result in any noticeable change in the Aboriginal employment/population ratio according to the assumptions applied because of the relatively small numbers involved.

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